Tuesday, October 06, 2009

AFL Trade Week

Reasons why AFL trade week is stupid:

1. It only goes for a week!

Only having one week is stupid in itself, but you also have to note WHEN it happens. Exactly one week after the previous years grand final and maybe six months before the next season is going to start. Anything could happen by then: off-season surgery, preseason injury, mid-season injury, mid-season team needs. Basically, you've got exactly one week to not only prepare for everything you'll need for the coming season, but you also need to actually come to an agreement with the other teams in that time. Some teams have new coaches that have hardly even seen the team or the players yet. Don't forget also that the rookie and preseason draft occur AFTER the trade week, and it's no wonder that the trade week is not a success.

2. No form of free agency

How this still exists (or not exists) is just crazy. You're out of contract, you don't want to resign with the team you're at and you've been in the league for say 6-8 years. And what's your reward if you choose to enter free agency ? Most likely you'll end up at THE WORST team in the league, unless you specify your own salary at such a level that MAYBE some of the bottom teams pass you up. The chance you end up in a side that made the finals ? Next to none.

The salary cap dictates that no team could just load up on all the best players, should there be an unlimited form of free agency. The only exception to this is if most of the top 20 players in the league got smart, accepted to play for less money and all went to one team (assuming such a team with most players soon to be out of contract existed). But that's NEVER going to happen, not even close. Just like with the NBA, the only players that usually (with a few exceptions) enter free agency are often former-stars that are a year or two away from being washed up (if not already), but are chasing a chance at a premiership.

3. Teams rate their players too highly

Just like supporters, and fantasy sports players. The teams think their players are worth about 50% more than they are, and unless there is some pressure (player out of contract, wants to leave etc) then they seem compelled to stay firm with what they've got rather than risk a trade that they don't feel is 100% safe and certain to benefit them - and when both teams want that, you have a stand off.

4. A three team deal is considered "complex"

This was considered a complex trade this week. Team A trades a low quality player to each of Team B and Team C. Team B sends quality player to Team C, while Team C sends a quality player to Team A. There's only two deals that could be simpler than this, a straight trade between two teams, and a three team "triangular" trade involving just three players from three teams. If that's considered complex by the media and supporters alike (and perhaps the clubs too) then we don't have much hope.

5. Players say upfront which team they want to go to

I have no problem with the player being able to elect their preference, but making it public - in particular letting the other club know - seems likely to completely shift the balance of power. If you're selling anything (a house, a car, whatever) one of your key assets is to have the buyer think, or know, that there are other people interested. Needless to say, this is why an auction works so well - direct competition. If another club knows you might need to deal with them, or lose the player for nothing, you can play hard ball on any negotiations.

6. The talent pool

The talent pool, in regards to the number of lesser skilled players that are "making up the numbers" at teams is a concern, and only going to get worse with the addition of two more teams. As they often say, it's not so much the top 6 players (of 22) that determine your success but the bottom 6. This means teams that have just reasonably good players, particularly at skill positions, don't want to risk trading them at a loss. You could also say this means there are two tiers of untradeable, those at the top and those at the bottom. The ones at the bottom are AFL standard, just, and understand and play a role at their current club, but the other teams simply would have no significant interest in acquiring them - particularly given that, again, they have just one week to get all of their trades done.

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