Down to four, and now we should definitely see some close series, maybe...
Cleveland 4 - Orlando 1
Starting in the east, once again I don't see how the Cavs come close to losing a series, LeBron is just playing to well right now. The Magic were anything but, just getting by Philly and then Boston, Dwight doesn't prevent a significant matchup problem as Z is decent, and on the other hand they don't have an obvious choice to guard James. As in the past, I'll give the Magic a win at home, but that'll do it.
LA Lakers 4 - Denver 3
Although the Lakers are still a concern, I think they've got the experience from last year to scrape through here. Hopefully the series matches that of Boston vs Chicago in the first round - the two teams do fit similar roles. If the Nuggets can't get a win in game one or two, it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
NBA 2008-09 Round 2 Playoff Review
Cleveland 4 - Atlanta 0
Easy pick, and helped somewhat by injuries to Horford and Williams, but even the games in Atlanta weren't very close. Cleveland have had pretty much the best run they could have hoped for - people say the East is improving, but there's still only been three decent teams (and perhaps Chicago) this year, so that means Cleveland doesn't even have to try until the conference finals, a big difference compared to the west.
Orlando 4 - Boston 2 was Orlando 4 - Boston 3
Tough series. The Magic were not really impressive at all, while the Celtics tried their best to hang on for one more round. Basically all of the top players in the Magic turned up to play on various nights and not on others during the playoffs it seems, Rashard Lewis has probably been the most consistent.
LA Lakers 4 - Houston 1 was LA Lakers 4 - Houston 3
A number of surprises here, from the Rockets winning game one, to Yao out after losing game three, to the Rockets somehow winning game four and six at home after that. I really can't explain what has happened to the Lakers so far in the playoffs, but they've gone from a nearly equal championship favourite to not even being certain to make it out of the west. It does seem like Bynum and Odom haven't been providing much, and therefore the bench is looking pretty average.
Denver 4 - Dallas 1
Got what was expected from a 2 v 6 matchup, although Dallas did get ripped off a bit in game three and could have made the series go longer. Denver is the opposite of the Lakers, they're looking better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season.
Easy pick, and helped somewhat by injuries to Horford and Williams, but even the games in Atlanta weren't very close. Cleveland have had pretty much the best run they could have hoped for - people say the East is improving, but there's still only been three decent teams (and perhaps Chicago) this year, so that means Cleveland doesn't even have to try until the conference finals, a big difference compared to the west.
Orlando 4 - Boston 2 was Orlando 4 - Boston 3
Tough series. The Magic were not really impressive at all, while the Celtics tried their best to hang on for one more round. Basically all of the top players in the Magic turned up to play on various nights and not on others during the playoffs it seems, Rashard Lewis has probably been the most consistent.
LA Lakers 4 - Houston 1 was LA Lakers 4 - Houston 3
A number of surprises here, from the Rockets winning game one, to Yao out after losing game three, to the Rockets somehow winning game four and six at home after that. I really can't explain what has happened to the Lakers so far in the playoffs, but they've gone from a nearly equal championship favourite to not even being certain to make it out of the west. It does seem like Bynum and Odom haven't been providing much, and therefore the bench is looking pretty average.
Denver 4 - Dallas 1
Got what was expected from a 2 v 6 matchup, although Dallas did get ripped off a bit in game three and could have made the series go longer. Denver is the opposite of the Lakers, they're looking better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
NBA 2008-09 Round 2 Playoff Preview
The second round of the playoffs is just about to begin, with no major upsets in the first round.
In the east we've got 1v4 and 2v3, although two series did go to seven.
In the west, we've got 1v5 and 2v6, with only one series even making it to six games, the 4v5.
Cleveland 4 - Atlanta 0
Surely only insane people would pick anything besides 4-0 or 4-1, the question is simply which one. The Cavaliers dominated the Pistons, and have their clear best three players (James, Williams, Ilgauskas) all healthy. The Hawks, on the other hand, just scraped in over the Heat, who were without Jermaine O'Neal for the last two games, and have injury concerns of their own -- Marvin Williams and Al Horford played little to none towards the end of the series.
If Atlanta had their full lineup, I'd definitely give them one win, but since they don't, it's another 4-0 for Cleveland.
Orlando 4 - Boston 2
I think this is the toughest one to pick in this round, since both teams are a little unknown with regards to injury and form. Boston had all kinds of trouble dealing with the Rose and Gordon combination, and to a lesser extend Noah and Miller at centre. Glen Davis has played quite well, but Rondo seemed strangely down in the last two games of this series, and almost was avoiding taking any shots. Having the benefit of actually watching parts of games five, six and seven (mostly the overtimes!) I also think Paul Pierce is definitely not at 100% either. When there's a cloud over your best players, and you've got such poor players in reserve, generally bad things happen -- see Spurs, round one.
Orlando surprisingly went into Philadelphia, without Dwight Howard, and got the win in game six. I'm not sure if that's more because of Orlando's play of Philadelphia's.
This is either Orlando in 6 or Boston in 7 for me, and I'm just slightly going with Orlando.
LA Lakers 4 - Houston 1
I don't see how the Lakers lose the series, it's just a matter of how hard they have to work, like in the first round. I think that Houston definitely gets one win at home, and maybe even a second. The previews I read often talk about the combination of Artest and Battier shutting down Kobe, but since I've never seen this first hand (by which I mean on television) I'm not sure how much impact this will have. What I do think is as important though, is if Bynum can have an impact. With both Gasol and Bynum doing well, I see the games going much more in LA's favour.
Denver 4 - Dallas 1
Another tough one to predict, since Dallas had an easy time in round one, but so did Denver. I think Denver are the more legitimate contender though, and seem to have got their defense in order this year, finally. They've both got a good bench too, featuring the top two in this years sixth man of the year award (Jason Terry and J.R. Smith). With that said, I think Denver should be good enough to steal one away. That could make this a 4-1 or a 4-2 result.
In the east we've got 1v4 and 2v3, although two series did go to seven.
In the west, we've got 1v5 and 2v6, with only one series even making it to six games, the 4v5.
Cleveland 4 - Atlanta 0
Surely only insane people would pick anything besides 4-0 or 4-1, the question is simply which one. The Cavaliers dominated the Pistons, and have their clear best three players (James, Williams, Ilgauskas) all healthy. The Hawks, on the other hand, just scraped in over the Heat, who were without Jermaine O'Neal for the last two games, and have injury concerns of their own -- Marvin Williams and Al Horford played little to none towards the end of the series.
If Atlanta had their full lineup, I'd definitely give them one win, but since they don't, it's another 4-0 for Cleveland.
Orlando 4 - Boston 2
I think this is the toughest one to pick in this round, since both teams are a little unknown with regards to injury and form. Boston had all kinds of trouble dealing with the Rose and Gordon combination, and to a lesser extend Noah and Miller at centre. Glen Davis has played quite well, but Rondo seemed strangely down in the last two games of this series, and almost was avoiding taking any shots. Having the benefit of actually watching parts of games five, six and seven (mostly the overtimes!) I also think Paul Pierce is definitely not at 100% either. When there's a cloud over your best players, and you've got such poor players in reserve, generally bad things happen -- see Spurs, round one.
Orlando surprisingly went into Philadelphia, without Dwight Howard, and got the win in game six. I'm not sure if that's more because of Orlando's play of Philadelphia's.
This is either Orlando in 6 or Boston in 7 for me, and I'm just slightly going with Orlando.
LA Lakers 4 - Houston 1
I don't see how the Lakers lose the series, it's just a matter of how hard they have to work, like in the first round. I think that Houston definitely gets one win at home, and maybe even a second. The previews I read often talk about the combination of Artest and Battier shutting down Kobe, but since I've never seen this first hand (by which I mean on television) I'm not sure how much impact this will have. What I do think is as important though, is if Bynum can have an impact. With both Gasol and Bynum doing well, I see the games going much more in LA's favour.
Denver 4 - Dallas 1
Another tough one to predict, since Dallas had an easy time in round one, but so did Denver. I think Denver are the more legitimate contender though, and seem to have got their defense in order this year, finally. They've both got a good bench too, featuring the top two in this years sixth man of the year award (Jason Terry and J.R. Smith). With that said, I think Denver should be good enough to steal one away. That could make this a 4-1 or a 4-2 result.
NBA 2008-09 Round 1 Playoff Review
A recap of the success (and failure) at picking the first round, and a little review of the games in general.
Cleveland 4 - Detroit 1 was Cleveland 4 - Detroit 0
I was generous and gave Detroit one win, in actual fact they didn't really come close to that. I don't think Cleveland did anything out of the ordinary in this series, just solid defence, as this Detroit era really has come to an end. Surely it's time to make some more drastic moves with this team, and try and actually get some return for their players, rather than having Rasheed Wallace leave as a free agent, for example.
Boston 4 - Chicago 3
First exact match, but I couldn't have predicted even half of the drama from this series. With Chicago winning game one it wasn't looking good, but there was simply nothing between these teams all series, as was plainly evident by the number of overtimes, double overtimes and even triple overtimes ! The series was great fun to watch, with a lot of different players stepping up in various games. Hopefully Chicago are even better next year, they're an entertaining team.
Orlando 4 - Philadelphia 2
I'm not a fan of 4-2 predictions for the higher ranked team, but this one worked out in my favour. I'm not sure how Philadelphia wins an early game in Orlando, then loses two at home, including one without Dwight Howard, but somehow they managed it !
Atlanta 4 - Miami 3
Three matches correct out of four in the eastern conference, too bad the west didn't go so well. I was quite uncertain of the fate of Atlanta going into game seven, with some big games from Wade in the leadup and uncertainty around both Al Horford and Marvin Williams. But the game seven was a poor contest, like all of the others really -- quite a shame for a 4v5 matchup -- and the Hawks had the game won by half time. Their reward, is to get destroyed by the Cavs I suspect...
LA Lakers 4 - Utah 1
At least this one went to plan in the west, quite predictably. Utah was probably a bit more competitive than I expected, particularly with Okur missing most of the first three games. Boozer and Deron Williams were both a bit hit and miss during the series though, otherwise it might have been a little closer again.
Denver 4 - New Orleans 3 was Denver 4 - New Orleans 1
New Orleans, what a disaster. Losing by 58 at home in game four is just unheard of. Chris Paul seemed to be completely outplayed by Billups for some reason, and the same for David West against Kenyon Martin and others. The Hornets basically got nothing from anyone else, so they'll need to do something dramatic in the offseason, or the foreseeable Paul future could be first round playoff loses.
San Antonio 4 - Dallas 3 was Dallas 4 - San Antonio 1
As noted, realistically I saw no way for San Antonio to win this series, and that's what happened. Quite similar to the Hornets, they only had two players providing any value during the playoffs, but they were much more respectable in defeat. They too really need to address what they want to do for next year, as they don't have many years to Tim Duncan left.
Portland 4 - Houston 3 was Houston 4 - Portland 2
I should have seen this result coming, but I didn't. I was convinced by the media saying that Portland are the only team capable of beating the Lakers, so I gave them the edge. In hindsight, they've got no playoff experience, they're a young team, and the Rockets have some good veterans -- even if many of them haven't been past the first round of the playoffs. The Blazers actually looked very shallow behind Roy and Aldridge, but I expect some players will develop by this time next year, hopefully Oden for one.
Cleveland 4 - Detroit 1 was Cleveland 4 - Detroit 0
I was generous and gave Detroit one win, in actual fact they didn't really come close to that. I don't think Cleveland did anything out of the ordinary in this series, just solid defence, as this Detroit era really has come to an end. Surely it's time to make some more drastic moves with this team, and try and actually get some return for their players, rather than having Rasheed Wallace leave as a free agent, for example.
Boston 4 - Chicago 3
First exact match, but I couldn't have predicted even half of the drama from this series. With Chicago winning game one it wasn't looking good, but there was simply nothing between these teams all series, as was plainly evident by the number of overtimes, double overtimes and even triple overtimes ! The series was great fun to watch, with a lot of different players stepping up in various games. Hopefully Chicago are even better next year, they're an entertaining team.
Orlando 4 - Philadelphia 2
I'm not a fan of 4-2 predictions for the higher ranked team, but this one worked out in my favour. I'm not sure how Philadelphia wins an early game in Orlando, then loses two at home, including one without Dwight Howard, but somehow they managed it !
Atlanta 4 - Miami 3
Three matches correct out of four in the eastern conference, too bad the west didn't go so well. I was quite uncertain of the fate of Atlanta going into game seven, with some big games from Wade in the leadup and uncertainty around both Al Horford and Marvin Williams. But the game seven was a poor contest, like all of the others really -- quite a shame for a 4v5 matchup -- and the Hawks had the game won by half time. Their reward, is to get destroyed by the Cavs I suspect...
LA Lakers 4 - Utah 1
At least this one went to plan in the west, quite predictably. Utah was probably a bit more competitive than I expected, particularly with Okur missing most of the first three games. Boozer and Deron Williams were both a bit hit and miss during the series though, otherwise it might have been a little closer again.
Denver 4 - New Orleans 3 was Denver 4 - New Orleans 1
New Orleans, what a disaster. Losing by 58 at home in game four is just unheard of. Chris Paul seemed to be completely outplayed by Billups for some reason, and the same for David West against Kenyon Martin and others. The Hornets basically got nothing from anyone else, so they'll need to do something dramatic in the offseason, or the foreseeable Paul future could be first round playoff loses.
San Antonio 4 - Dallas 3 was Dallas 4 - San Antonio 1
As noted, realistically I saw no way for San Antonio to win this series, and that's what happened. Quite similar to the Hornets, they only had two players providing any value during the playoffs, but they were much more respectable in defeat. They too really need to address what they want to do for next year, as they don't have many years to Tim Duncan left.
Portland 4 - Houston 3 was Houston 4 - Portland 2
I should have seen this result coming, but I didn't. I was convinced by the media saying that Portland are the only team capable of beating the Lakers, so I gave them the edge. In hindsight, they've got no playoff experience, they're a young team, and the Rockets have some good veterans -- even if many of them haven't been past the first round of the playoffs. The Blazers actually looked very shallow behind Roy and Aldridge, but I expect some players will develop by this time next year, hopefully Oden for one.
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