Saturday, April 18, 2009

NBA 2008-09 Round 1 Playoff Preview

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A quick preview of who I think will advance through the first round of the playoffs. Assuming I am correct on all counts (highly unlikely) I've made a few quick choices all the way through to the NBA finals. I'll have more details playoff previews as each round begins. Note that the format for the first round of the playoffs is 2-2-1-1-1.

Cleveland 4 - Detroit 1

I don't see any way Cleveland loses to Detroit at home given their regular season record, also given that Detroit is quite a shambles since the AI trade. Since then AI is done for the season and Stuckey has done little to convince he can be a leading PG anytime soon. Best case scenario sees Detroit somehow winning a home game, but they could also lose 4-0 quite easily, 4-1 is the conservative pick.

Boston 4 - Chicago 3

Without KG, I don't see how Boston wins this series convincingly. They've been doing well enough without him until now, but Chicago has a pretty good squad and some depth on the bench. I'm not sure they win a game at Boston though, but this might be a repeat of last year for Boston where they don't win away games either.

Orlando 4 - Philadelphia 2

I really dislike picking the 4-2 result, but I'll go with it here only because of some concerns over the health of Hedo and Rashard Lewis. Even with less than 100% from those guys, I don't see the 76ers having enough to beat the Magic four times if Howard is close to his best, but having Thaddeus Young just back from injury certainly improves their chances, if only they had Elton Brand...

Atlanta 4 - Miami 3

Obviously the closest matchup should always be 4v5, but this is clearly the best matchup in the east in the first round. Atlanta apparently have a strong home court advantage -- they took Boston to 7 games last year -- and they rested up their starters in the last two games of the season while Marvin Williams made his comeback from injury at the same time.

I've heard too many times (more than zero) that "Wade can win a game by himself", which besides making no sense, doesn't mean Miami can win the series. That being said, if they can get good numbers out of Beasley and O'Neal for just one away game, that might be all it takes to steal this one.

LA Lakers 4 - Utah 1

Not quite the blowout I expect from the Cleveland series, but with Bynum back I don't see how the Lakers struggle in this one. Utah has also been just terrible in away games this whole season.

Denver 4 - New Orleans 3

Hard to predict what Denver will do in the finals, Carmelo doesn't have much experience (or wins) there but Billups should stabilise things. The Paul and West combination should make this a series, but the Hornets don't seem to be getting enough regular contributions from their other players -- and Posey hasn't added much -- to win a seven game series.

San Antonio 4 - Dallas 3

Another 4-3 result simply because I don't see one team having a distinct advantage over the other here. The Spurs are banged up and probably aren't getting past the second round, but they might just have the experience and determination in them to get past the Mavericks, who have been a little down for much of this season. The home court advantage probably means very little in this series. This is the one pick I might be most wrong about, the Spurs might very well fold at home and lose 4-1 or 4-2.

Portland 4 - Houston 3

Houston always seem to disappoint in the finals -- T-Mac hasn't won a first round if I'm not mistaken -- but Portland are so young and inexperienced, that this should be a very entertaining series. Portland have a good combination (Pryzbilla and Oden) to take on Ming while Houston have Artest and Battier to watch Roy. Portland have the capability to win this, but whether they can produce in their first finals appearance is tough to pick.

NBA 2008-09 End Of Season Awards

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A quick review of the 2008-09 season, players rather than teams for now, by making my choices for the end of season award winners. Those marked with an asterisk are those which I think will be announced the actual winner in the coming weeks.

MVP


1. LeBron James *
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Chris Paul

Based on their individual stats on the season alone, James and Wade are almost identical, but for a couple of points (Wade) and rebounds (LeBron) per game. However, the team win-loss record speaks for itself, combined with the 39-2 home record and the defense that James provides makes it a pretty obvious choice.

Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul are at the next level, although the media seems to be getting stuck into both Paul and the Hornets for a late season drop off in performance. The people that vote on this award probably take the Lakers record, and the fact that Bynum got injured (despite still having Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and other capable fill-ins) into account so I wouldn't be surprised if the actual order is more like: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.

Rookie Of The Year

1. Derrick Rose *
2. O. J. Mayo
3. Russell Westbrook

Derrick Rose deserves to win this one without a doubt. Rose was only a little behind Mayo for scoring, on a much better team, while also contributing a lot of assists at the true point guard position. Before Mike Conley got it together in the second half of the season, and with Rudy Gay not improving at all from last year (or so it seemed), Mayo was seemingly the go-to player on this team. Westbrook deserves a mention, but a terrible field goal percentage and high number of turnovers hurts.

Interestingly, if Greg Oden was eligible for this award, and I'm not sure he is, I wouldn't have him in my top five.

I don't see the media getting fooled into voting Mayo over Rose, particularly with Chicago finishing in a tie for 6th in the East.

Coach Of The Year

1. Rick Adelman
2. Mike Brown *

I hate the "best team means best coach" predictability of this award at times, unless that coach happens to be someone like Pop or Jackson that has already won the award multiple times -- that's when they starting thinking outside the box. Perhaps this causes me to go too far in the opposite direction, and purposely not just pick the coach with the best record. I've heard several times again this year about how Jerry Sloan has never won one, which he probably deserves, but I don't think this is the year.

Adelman has done a good job with Houston this year, with T-Mac being not so great, then injured for the season. He didn't have much behind Yao on the offensive end -- with both Artest and Battier shooting terrible this year, not to mention Alston getting traded -- but he's got the team winning games, and in the end they just missed out on 3rd place in the West, on the final day of the season. Interesting fact, he's made the finals every year, except the two year stint he spent at Golden State for the 1995 and 1996 seasons.

The media will obviously look at Cleveland's dominant year, and the fact they went from 45 wins to 62 is quite impressive, but I think Mo Williams, and further improvement from LeBron this year, had quite a significant impact on that too.

Defensive Player Of The Year

1. Dwight Howard *
2. Chris Paul
3. LeBron James

Defensive player, and team, is hard to speculate on when you don't get to watch games/highlights day-in day-out, read the match reports in detail or generally be immersed in the game by being in the USA. For example, Troy Murphy and David Lee both had amazing rebounding numbers, but from all accords neither is more than an average defensive player. However, when you put together the blocks and rebounds, with some decent defensive numbers from the Magic, I think Howard has to be the winner here. It seems like a PF/C is often the winner of this award (Mutombo, Mourning and Ben Wallace in recent years), so it makes sense.

If I'm wrong, maybe Chris Paul as the league leaders in steals, or LeBron's steals and blocks, could get the nod.

Sixth Man Of The Year

1. Jason Terry *
2. Chris Andersen
3. Nate Robinson

The sixth man award is at times controversial, where the player has been, or could be, a regular starter for that team or any other team (e.g. Manu Ginobili). Terry started a handful of games this year, but most were probably due to injuries. Scoring almost 20 ppg, with more than 2 threes, is quite an impressive number for a bench player. When you consider they've also got Dirk (4th in the league for scoring), Josh Howard and Jason Kidd, the numbers only look better. As such, I think Terry is almost a certainty to win this one.

Chris Andersen has been increasingly dominant in blocks, and handy for rebounds, as the season has gone on. Finishing second in blocks to Dwight Howard for the season, that kind of production has to be priceless from a bench player, or a suitable fill-in should the starting PF/C get into early foul trouble.

Nate Robinson had a good year for points and assists, but like many of the Knicks his performances were very up and down, and more so down later in the season.

Most Improved Player

1. Kevin Durant
2. Danny Granger *
3. Devin Harris
4. Jameer Nelson

First off, I'm not a huge fan of this award. It seems quite subjective, and the parameters are not so clear. For example, is Nelson going from around 10.9 ppg to 16.7 ppg better than Granger going from 19.6 to 25.8 ? The increase is almost identical, but Nelson certainly won't make the headlines like becoming the 7th best scorer in the league will. With that said, on with the justification.

Durant has seen a big improvement in his second year, like many rookies usually do. He was only 0.4 rebounds per game off leading the team in every category except assists -- although to be fair the team isn't that great. However, leading a team means both more opportunity and more defensive attention, so to increase FG% from 43.0 to 47.6 is quite impressive. Dealing with a coaching change, and finally getting to move from SG to SF only adds to his credentials.

Danny Granger, on a slightly better team (with Mike Dunleavy out injured) than Durant, seems to be a more popular choice. He's had a steady increase from year 1 through to now (year 4), but his only real increase this year over last is 6ppg, which might be attributed to Dunleavy being out for almost the whole year and Jermaine O'Neal being traded.

All NBA First Team

G Kobe Bryant
G Dwyane Wade
F LeBron James
F Tim Duncan
C Dwight Howard

I'm going with the 2G/2F/C formula, so Chris Paul had to the miss the first team, and a second forward had to be added. Close call over Pierce and Nowitzki, but I narrowly went with Duncan. Duncan produced numbers (20/10) just under his career average, but was without Parker and Ginobili for much of the season, and still achieved 54 wins for the Spurs.

The rest of the team pretty much chose themselves, as per the MVP choices.

All NBA Second Team

G Chris Paul
G Tony Parker
F Paul Pierce
F Dirk Nowitzki
C Pau Gasol

As above, Pierce and Nowitzki seem to be the next best forwards. Pau Gasol is a more than adequate second best player on the Lakers, in a league with few dominant centres. Another close call for the second guard, I went with Parker (for the same reasons as Duncan) ahead of Roy and Billups.

All NBA Third Team

G Brandon Roy
G Chauncey Billups
F Kevin Durant
F Danny Granger
C Yao Ming

Best of the rest, a couple that just missed included Deron Williams and Chris Bosh.

All Rookie First Team

G Derrick Rose
G O. J. Mayo
F Kevin Love
F Michael Beasley
C Brook Lopez

Like the All NBA, one of the guards from my Rookie Of The Year selections had to the miss the first team. This year was certainly a year for guards, and perhaps that's often the case -- the forwards probably take longer for their bodies to develop, and need more strength and muscle from a couple of pre seasons.

However, there was still enough quality to fill out the rest of the team. Lopez has been getting better as the season goes on, and contributes quality points, rebounds and blocks each night. Love was thrown into the starting lineup early, didn't remain there the whole year, but seems to have survived through the 82 games quite well. Beasley was managed a little differently and more cautiously, but had enough big games to earn a first team mention -- expect big things from him next year.

All Rookie Second Team

G Russell Westbrook
G Eric Gordon
F Jason Thompson
F Anthony Randolph
C Roy Hibbert

Westbrook and Gordon were the next best guards, and both starters contributed well to their respective teams. The rest of the team was a little trickier. Thompson was the next best forward, and worked his way into the starting lineup for the Kings -- although they were the worst team in the league. Randolph struggled due to a lack of game time, but showed some potential late in the season as the injuries started to add up for the Warriors. Hibbert was simply the next best centre, I'd rather have picked another guard, either D. J. Augustin or Courtney Lee.

All Defensive First Team

G Chris Paul
G Kobe Bryant
F LeBron James
F Tim Duncan
C Dwight Howard

A little bit of guesswork here as with the defensive players. I went with the stats, team results, and past performances when all else fails.

All Defensive Second Team

G Dwyane Wade
G Bruce Bowen
F Shane Battier
F Kevin Garnett
C Chris Andersen

Would not be surprised if Andersen doesn't make this team, but I think he's earned a spot as the second centre. I've been a little creative with this team, as I've technically got 3 forwards and Wade in the other spots.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Part 2

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After a bit of a mix up with the ESPN draft, I joined a Yahoo league, because I want to have a team that I created and drafted entirely myself -- so I've got noone to blame if I fail, which in all likelihood is an almost certainty. I landed the number 2 draft position, which sounds great except:
  • you have to make two picks in a row almost, which is hard with the time limit given
  • the person at number one wasn't there, meaning I actually had NO break in between picks
  • remember I know nothing about baseball, so it's even harder to find the right players
I won't recap the entire draft, but I wanted to mention one thing. The person drafting at number one (and wasn't in attendance) must have pre-ranked his players, because rather than taking #1 overall (Hanley Ramirez) or even #2 (Albert Pujols) -- neither of which I know anything about by the way -- he went with #7 (Ryan Braun). Big win for me, as now I've got the number one player to get things going. Anyway, my team is listed below, and as usual with drafting I've JUST missed out on a couple of players I was desperately waiting for through 20 other picks (I pick 2nd & 23rd of 24 picks), only to miss by one or two places.

The format this time is -- Draft Position Player Position [Yahoo O-Rank] -- with * meaning injured.

2 Hanley Ramirez SS [1]
23 Prince Fielder 1B [21]
26 Brandon Phillips 2B [27]
47 Cole Hamels SP [45] -- just missed Alexei Ramirez 2B, SS, OF [44]
50 Brian McCann C [48]
71 Chipper Jones 3B [65] -- just missed Chris Davis 1B, 3B [68]
74 Cliff Lee SP [91]
95 Bobby Abreu OF [94]
98 James Shields SP [97]
119 Johnny Damon OF [116]
122 Jose Valverde RP [126]
143 Conor Jackson 1B, OF [136]
146 Brian Fuentes RP [152]
167 Xavier Nady OF [163]
170 Gil Meche SP [202]
191 Pat Burrell OF [166]
194 Jim Thome UTIL [174]
215 Gavin Floyd SP [246]
218 Troy Glaus* 3B [201]
239 Placido Polanco 2B [208] -- just missed George Sherrill RP [293]
242 J.J. Putz RP [316]

Good
  • Filled out all positions early
  • Best short stop and catcher
  • People I've heard of: Ramirez, Fielder, Jones, Abreu, Damon, Nady
Bad
  • Don't know any of the pitchers
  • All picks after Nady were just guesses
No need for a big clean out this time, on with the games !

Fantasy Baseball Part 1

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I know next to nothing about baseball -- there's pitchers, batters and a catcher -- and even less about fantasy baseball, but i thought I'd give it a go, since the baseball season runs for a long time during the middle of the year when there is no regular season NBA or NFL action.

So, I'll post my initial lineup and thoughts, just for fun, and see if I've learnt anything during the season -- and maybe to see just how many mistakes I made along the way.

I first signed up for an ESPN league, since I like ESPN a lot more than Yahoo for various reasons, which I may detail in a separate post later (note to self), but I did not pay careful attention to the league draft rules. It said the league drafts at 5 AM (US time) but what happened at 5 AM was the ENTIRE league was auto drafted by the ESPN system. This means, since I did not rank players in any way, that I just got auto allocated all my players by the default rank for this year. Thankfully not all bad, because the system seemed to do a good job of giving me players in all required positions. Anyway, below is my initial lineup, which I did not actually pick at all !

Note, the format is --
(Draft Position) Player, Team Position [Projected Season Rank] -- with * meaning injured.

(3) David Wright, NYM 3B [3]
(18) Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B [15]
(23) Nick Markakis, Bal OF [21]
(38) Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B [34]
(43) Kevin Youkilis, Bos 3B [39]
(58) Derrek Lee, ChC 1B [55]
(63) Mariano Rivera, NYY RP [60]
(78) Carlos Pena, TB 1B [74]
(83) Shane Victorino, Phi OF [78]
(98) Scott Baker*, Min SP [94]
(103) B.J. Ryan, Tor RP [99]
(118) John Lackey*, LAA SP [46]
(123) Kerry Wood, Cle RP [117]
(138) Ted Lilly, ChC SP [130]
(143) Ricky Nolasco, Fla SP [135]
(158) Mike Cameron, Mil OF [149]
(163) James Loney, LAD 1B [154]
(178) Brett Myers, Phi SP [147]
(183) Hiroki Kuroda*, LAD SP [172]
(198) Edwin Encarnacion, Cin 3B [186]
(203) Carlos Guillen, Det 3B [190]
(218) Jason Bartlett, TB SS [205]
(223) Adam Lind, Tor OF [220]
(238) Chase Headley, SD OF [228]
(243) Chris Snyder, Ari C [278]

As you can see, where I thought the computer did a good job, it actually almost went in order the whole way through, when you compare the draft to projected rank. Here's the good and the bad from the draft:

Good
  • Lackey at 118 (projected 46), depends on injury though
  • Good batch of pitchers with kind of early picks
  • I've at least heard of: Wright, Pedroia, Youkilis, Rivera, Pena, Victorino, Bartlett (NY, Bos and last years World Series teams)
Bad
  • Two 2B in the first four picks
  • Two 3B in the first five picks
  • Two 1B in the first eight picks
  • Catcher in the last round, poor projected rank
  • No spare OF players on the bench
A quick summary of the rules of the league, which seem to be the standard rules:
  • Unlimited batters can be used
  • 200 starting pitchers (SP) allowed, relief pitchers (RP) don't seem to count towards this
  • Lineup: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 2B/SS, 1B/3B, 5 OF's, UTIL, 3 Bench's, 9 P's
Within the first few days of the season I've done a bit of an overhaul of my team. I'll check back in again in a month or two perhaps, and see how we're going.
  • Jason Bartlett, TB SS [205] for Ryan Theriot, ChC SS [176]
  • Chase Headley, SD OF [228] for David DeJesus, KC OF [194]
  • injury listed pitcher for Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP [177]
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Cin 3B [186] for Nelson Cruz, Tex OF [260]
  • Chris Snyder, Ari C [278] for Brandon Inge, Det C [389]